As of Monday, October 14, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide rose by 16,900 mt compared to last Thursday, reaching 220,500 mt, with post-holiday inventories continuing to rise. Total inventories were 106,400 mt higher than the 114,100 mt YoY, with Shanghai up by 61,200 mt, Guangdong by 36,400 mt, and Jiangsu by 10,200 mt. Click to apply to view the SMM metal industry chain database.
Specifically, inventories in Shanghai increased by 16,000 mt from last Thursday to 143,200 mt. Over the weekend, both imported and domestic copper arrived, but downstream consumption was moderate, leading to a significant inventory buildup in Shanghai. Inventories in Jiangsu decreased by 100 mt to 21,300 mt, with fewer arrivals and moderate outflows from warehouses. Inventories in Guangdong increased by 1,100 mt to 49,100 mt, as post-National Day downstream consumption in Guangdong remained weak, which was also reflected in the consistently low daily outflows from warehouses in Guangdong.
Looking ahead, after delivery, the volume sent to warehouses by smelters is expected to decrease, but there will still be an increase in imported copper, with supply expected to slightly decrease WoW. On the downstream consumption side, as downstream enterprises gradually resume production after the holiday, consumption is expected to increase WoW. According to our research, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod producers is expected to rise to 77.35%, up by 16.92 percentage points WoW. Therefore, we believe that this week will see a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, with weekly inventories possibly declining again.
